Instead of the typical wrap-up post this week, I thought it would be fun to write up some Emmy predictions. The show snuck up on me this year – it’s so much earlier than it usually is, and on a Monday night, too!
I’ll be listing my picks for who/what should win, will win, and what I feel was the biggest snub in every category. Things get a little tricky in the movie/miniseries categories because I haven’t seen as much of that stuff, but I’ll give it a shot anyway. FOR SCIENCE!
I will probably have some sort of live-blog/reaction post up late Monday night or early Tuesday. I won’t be around for at least the early part of the actual show, so I’ll be a bit tape-delayed.
Let’s get to the predictions!
Best Comedy Series
Nominated: The Big Bang Theory, Louie,Modern Family, Orange Is the New Black,Silicon Valley, Veep
Should Win:Orange is the New Black. This is for season one – season two will fall under next year’s eligibility period – and, final season of Breaking Bad notwithstanding, those first 13 episodes were the best thing I watched on TV last year in any genre.
Will Win: Orange is the New Black. I get the sense the series and its cast could walk away with quite a few awards Monday night, including the big prize.
Snubbed: Parks and Recreation. I’ve come to terms with the fact that this show is going to sail off into the TV sunset without ever winning any awards, but that doesn’t mean I have to like it or understand it.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominated: Lena Dunham, Girls; Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep; Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation; Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Should Win: Amy Poehler. Look, I’m sure Louis-Dreyfus is wonderful on Veep, but I’ve never seen it. I’m sure she’ll be more than deserving when she wins. But dammit, Poehler deserves some love for the constantly wonderful work she does as Leslie Knope.
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Maybe Taylor Schilling if the OITNB love is really intense. But I think Louis-Dreyfus repeats.
Snubbed: Melissa Fumero, Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Santiago could easily be a no-fun, stuck-up character that no one likes, but Fumero made her (and all her craziness) endearing – and super funny.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominated: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory; Ricky Gervais, Derek; Matt LeBlanc, Episodes; Don Cheadle, House of Lies; Louis C.K., Louie; William H. Macy, Shameless
Should Win: Louie C.K. Louie wrote himself some of the most challenging material he’s had yet on Louie this year – although, certainly not the funniest – and he proved he was up for it.
Will Win: Jim Parsons. I’ve said it in the past and I’ll say it again – the Emmy comedy categories are often super boring.
Snubbed: Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation; Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine. I will stump for more nominations for Parks and Recreation until the day it goes off the air, even though I know it is useless. Scott is terrific on the show and deserves more love than he gets for playing the straight man to all the wacky characters of Pawnee. Samberg, meanwhile, managed to take a not-terribly-likable Jake Peralta and in the course of the first season of Brooklyn Nine-Nine, really add some nice nuance – all while being hilarious.
Supporting Actor, Comedy Series
Nominated: Andre Braugher, Brookiyn Nine-Nine; Adam Driver, Girls; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Fred Armisen, Portlandia; Tony Hale, Veep
Should Win: Andre Braugher. His deadpan delivery was a highlight of the very funny first season of Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Go watch the man angrily carry puppies around for an entire episode, or say “Kwazy Kupcakes” over and over, and try to tell me that doesn’t deserve an Emmy.
Will Win: I really want to believe Braugher will win, but for some reason my gut feeling is that Tony Hale repeats.
Snubbed: Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation. The man is Ron frickin’ Swanson. This season he got to play a little bit of the softer side of Ron, and he did so with great success. I have no idea how the Emmys have consistently had such a blind spot for how funny this man is.
Supporting Actress, Comedy Series
Nominated: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory; Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Allison Janney, Mom; Kate Mulgrew, Orange Is the New Black; Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live; Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Should Win: Kate Mulgrew. Her work as Red on OITNB is incredible. I barely even recognized her the first time I saw her on the show, she melted so much into the part. Amazing stuff.
Will Win: Kate Mulgrew. I think this category winds up as part of the OITNB lovefest.
Snubbed: Michaela Watkins, Trophy Wife. I know basically no one watched this show, but my goodness, was Watkins ever hilarious on it. She played quirky Jackie with the perfect balance of crazy and vulnerability. I am still so sad that show got cancelled.
Best Drama Series
Nominated: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, House of Cards, Mad Men, True Detective
Should Win: Breaking Bad. The last eight episodes of the series were terrific, and it could probably win on the strength of “Ozymandias” alone.
Will Win: Breaking Bad, although I would not be at all surprised by a True Detective win, either.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Nominated: Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex; Claire Danes, Homeland; Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Kerry Washington, Scandal; Robin Wright, House of Cards
Should Win: I protest this category due to lack of Tatiana Maslany.
Will Win: Robin Wright. Just a hunch. She had a terrific arc in the second season of House of Cards – her story was by far my favorite part of the season.
Snubbed: Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black. I’ve talked about this over and over again on Twitter and on my vlog. It is a crime the voters can’t look past the fact that Orphan Black is a sci-fi show on a tiny network with no big name stars and recognize one of the most outstanding acting performances I’ve ever seen.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Nominated: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Woody Harrelson, True Detective; Matthew McConaughey, True Detective; Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Should Win: Bryan Cranston, who was terrific as always in the final stretch of Breaking Bad.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey. He’s got the narrative (an Oscar and an Emmy in the same year!), he’s got the popularity, and he’s got the more-recently-buzzed-about show. I still haven’t finished True Detective – I have 3 episodes left – but based upon what I’ve seen it certainly will be a well deserved award, even if I think Cranston would deserve it a bit more.
Supporting Actor, Drama Series
Nominated: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad; Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Josh Charles, The Good Wife; Mandy Patinkin, Homeland; Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
Should Win: Since he’s the only one of the nominees I’ve seen, Aaron Paul.
Will Win: Peter Dinklage. I heard quite a bit of terrific buzz about his performance on Game of Thrones this year, and he’s a previous winner. Sounds like a winning combo to me.
Snubbed: Dean Norris, Breaking Bad, who was incredible throughout the final chunk of episodes (and probably should have been nominated instead of his co-star Aaron Paul).
Supporting Actress, Drama Series
Nominated: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad; Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey; Lena Headey, Game of Thrones; Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Should Win: Anna Gunn. Her submission episode was “Ozymandias”, which features her breakdown in the street after Walt kidnaps Holly. Case closed.
Will Win: Anna Gunn. Seriously, that scene won this award for her a year ago. Incredible stuff.
Best Miniseries or Movie
Nominated: American Horror Story: Coven, Bonnie & Clyde, Fargo, Luther, Treme, The White Queen
Should Win: Fargo, in a walk. The rest of the nominees don’t even come close.
Will Win: Fargo. I would bet money on it.
Best Actress Miniseries or Movie
Nominated: Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven; Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Coven; Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor; Minnie Driver, Return to Zero; Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon; Cicely Tyson, The Trip Bountiful
Will Win: I have seen literally none of these things, but I’m going to guess Jessica Lange because the Emmy voters seem to dig her.
Best Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Nominated: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge; Martin Freeman, Fargo; Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo; Idris Elba, Luther; Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
Will Win: I’m not even going to bother with a “should win” on this one, because HOLY CRAP THIS CATEGORY IS HARD. Both Freeman and Thornton were terrific on Fargo, and Ruffalo was outstanding in The Normal Heart. I’ll go with Ruffalo for the win, but it could really be any of the three and I wouldn’t be surprised or disappointed.
Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Nominated: Colin Hanks, Fargo; Martin Freeman, Sherlock; Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart; Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart; Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart; Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
Should Win: Matt Bomer, who was heartbreakingly good in The Normal Heart. As an aside, this may be the first time in history I’ve seen all the nominees in a miniseries category.
Will Win: Matt Bomer. The whole cast of The Normal Heart was great, but Bomer was a cut above.
Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Nominated: Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven; Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven; Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven; Allison Tolman, Fargo; Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic; Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
Should Win: Allison Tolman. At the beginning of this year I had no idea who she was, now she’s given one of my favorite performances of the year. Molly was the heart of Fargo, and Tolman portrayed her beautifully.
Will Win: Allison Tolman. This might be wishful thinking and it could easily be Julia Roberts, but dammit, I’m sticking with it.
What are your predictions for this year’s Emmys?